Empirical Regime Classification with KRONXnbc5 months ago
Overview | Step 1 — Feature Engineering | Rolling Volatility | Drawdown | Downside Semi-deviation (Transition Stress Proxy) | Residence Pressure | Ruin Proxy | Attach Regime Labels and Export | Step 2 — Why Random Sampling, Not a Chronological Split | Step 3 — Fitting the Student-t Naive Bayes Classifier | Step 4 — Inspecting the Fitted Parameters | Parameter Tables | Coefficient Data Frame | Density Plots | Step 5 — Out-of-Sample Evaluation | Predictions | Confusion Matrix | COR Stress Alert | Step 6 — Interpreting the $\nu$ Parameter | What low $\nu$ means | Validation of the heavy-tail hypothesis | Appendix — Session Info